Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiangtan Electrochemical Scientific Co.,Ltd (002125.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.74 - $73.95$69.30
Multi-Stage$11.50 - $12.59$12.04
Blended Fair Value$40.67
Current Price$15.20
Upside167.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.98%18.42%0.230.210.160.130.120.140.110.040.040.04
YoY Growth--11.36%32.89%23.54%5.91%-13.06%28.82%149.53%20.92%-12.06%-5.77%
Dividend Yield--2.18%2.22%1.18%0.90%1.60%1.99%1.59%0.73%0.47%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)119.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.6428.5217.11
Cash Retained (M)108.45108.45108.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.64-28.52-17.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.8179.9391.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)613.63613.63613.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.74$69.30$73.95
Upside / Downside141.70%355.95%386.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.18243.01258.81275.63293.55312.63322.01
Payout Ratio52.47%59.98%67.48%74.99%82.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)119.73145.75174.65206.69242.16281.36297.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)135.76137.04138.33
Year 2 PV (M)151.52154.41157.32
Year 3 PV (M)167.02171.81176.70
Year 4 PV (M)182.26189.27196.48
Year 5 PV (M)197.25206.77216.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,225.106,525.776,837.95
Equity Value (M)7,058.907,385.087,723.45
Shares Outstanding (M)613.63613.63613.63
Fair Value$11.50$12.04$12.59
Upside / Downside-24.32%-20.82%-17.19%

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