Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sanbian Sci Tech Co., Ltd. (002112.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.96 - $60.04$56.26
Multi-Stage$40.89 - $44.88$42.85
Blended Fair Value$49.56
Current Price$12.92
Upside283.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.23%2.03%0.140.120.090.080.060.050.070.070.050.06
YoY Growth--22.99%24.42%15.87%36.96%21.85%-30.98%0.95%32.78%-12.45%-49.01%
Dividend Yield--0.98%1.27%0.73%1.28%1.05%0.92%1.08%0.89%0.43%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.4910.306.18
Cash Retained (M)46.2946.2946.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.49-10.30-6.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.8035.9840.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)273.08273.08273.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.96$56.26$60.04
Upside / Downside294.41%335.47%364.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.4487.7993.5099.58106.05112.95116.33
Payout Ratio43.85%53.08%62.31%71.54%80.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.1546.6058.2671.2485.66101.65107.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)46.6447.0847.52
Year 2 PV (M)58.3559.4660.59
Year 3 PV (M)71.4173.4675.54
Year 4 PV (M)85.9289.2392.63
Year 5 PV (M)102.04106.97112.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,802.5811,324.3511,866.08
Equity Value (M)11,166.9411,700.5512,254.45
Shares Outstanding (M)273.08273.08273.08
Fair Value$40.89$42.85$44.88
Upside / Downside216.51%231.63%247.33%

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