DDM Analysis: 002062.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.58 - $2.27	$1.92
Multi-Stage	$4.41 - $4.86	$4.63
Blended Fair Value	$3.27
Current Price	$10.00
Upside	-67.27%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	29.11%	21.53%	0.17	0.09	0.09	0.11	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.21	0.07	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	79.35%	0.00%	-16.67%	140.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-77.82%	215.59%	0.00%	180.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.99%	2.25%	1.75%	2.17%	1.08%	1.02%	1.04%	4.70%	1.05%	1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	276.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	173.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	103.05

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	55.38	34.61	20.77
Cash Retained (M)	103.05	103.05	103.05
(-) Cash Required (M)	-55.38	-34.61	-20.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)	47.67	68.44	82.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,172.87	1,172.87	1,172.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.21	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	-4.93%	-3.93%	-2.93%
Fair Value	$1.58	$1.92	$2.27
Upside / Downside	-84.18%	-80.82%	-77.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	276.91	266.03	255.58	245.54	235.89	226.62	233.42
Payout Ratio	62.78%	68.23%	73.67%	79.11%	84.56%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	173.86	181.51	188.29	194.25	199.46	203.96	215.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	-4.93%	-3.93%	-2.93%
Year 1 PV (M)	168.78	170.56	172.33
Year 2 PV (M)	162.81	166.25	169.73
Year 3 PV (M)	156.19	161.18	166.26
Year 4 PV (M)	149.14	155.51	162.09
Year 5 PV (M)	141.81	149.43	157.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,389.25	4,625.00	4,870.77
Equity Value (M)	5,167.98	5,427.92	5,698.55
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,172.87	1,172.87	1,172.87
Fair Value	$4.41	$4.63	$4.86
Upside / Downside	-55.94%	-53.72%	-51.41%

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Hongrun Construction Group Co., Ltd. (002062.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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