Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co., Ltd. (002049.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.75 - $93.88$56.56
Multi-Stage$26.02 - $28.44$27.21
Blended Fair Value$41.89
Current Price$90.31
Upside-53.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS59.89%34.54%0.700.020.260.140.090.070.050.050.050.07
YoY Growth--2,961.31%-91.03%87.11%43.85%41.46%46.66%-11.83%14.22%-37.30%100.76%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.04%0.23%0.09%0.12%0.19%0.14%0.14%0.21%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,432.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,228.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)286.43179.02107.41
Cash Retained (M)1,228.461,228.461,228.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-286.43-179.02-107.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)942.031,049.441,121.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)842.63842.63842.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.251.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.251.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.75$56.56$93.88
Upside / Downside-58.20%-37.37%3.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,432.171,525.261,624.401,729.991,842.441,962.192,021.06
Payout Ratio14.22%29.38%44.53%59.69%74.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.70448.10723.411,032.621,378.971,765.971,869.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.30%9.30%9.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)406.12409.97413.82
Year 2 PV (M)594.22605.54616.97
Year 3 PV (M)768.75790.82813.30
Year 4 PV (M)930.42966.201,003.01
Year 5 PV (M)1,079.921,132.091,186.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,145.7319,022.1719,932.16
Equity Value (M)21,925.1722,926.8023,965.51
Shares Outstanding (M)842.63842.63842.63
Fair Value$26.02$27.21$28.44
Upside / Downside-71.19%-69.87%-68.51%

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