Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yifan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (002019.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.29 - $5.12$4.14
Multi-Stage$7.65 - $8.42$8.03
Blended Fair Value$6.08
Current Price$13.87
Upside-56.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.26%0.00%0.170.060.070.120.170.160.410.150.080.06
YoY Growth--168.84%-16.11%-37.58%-31.48%5.01%-60.16%173.73%82.37%47.89%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.43%0.54%0.53%0.79%0.85%1.01%2.99%0.68%0.49%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)407.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)162.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)244.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.4750.9230.55
Cash Retained (M)244.48244.48244.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.47-50.92-30.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.00193.56213.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.901,168.901,168.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.29$4.14$5.12
Upside / Downside-76.26%-70.17%-63.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)407.37403.30399.27395.27391.32387.41399.03
Payout Ratio39.99%49.99%59.99%69.99%80.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)162.90201.61239.53276.67313.05348.67369.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)187.75189.66191.58
Year 2 PV (M)207.73211.99216.29
Year 3 PV (M)223.45230.36237.41
Year 4 PV (M)235.45245.20255.26
Year 5 PV (M)244.21256.93270.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,841.458,249.788,674.93
Equity Value (M)8,940.039,383.929,845.65
Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.901,168.901,168.90
Fair Value$7.65$8.03$8.42
Upside / Downside-44.86%-42.12%-39.27%

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