DDM Analysis: 001296.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$162.98 - $192.02	$179.95
Multi-Stage	$46.43 - $50.90	$48.63
Blended Fair Value	$114.29
Current Price	$22.80
Upside	401.27%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2016	2015	2014
DPS	146.47%	7.91%	0.31	0.08	0.23	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.30
YoY Growth	-	-	276.80%	-63.87%	3,326.02%	87.40%	4.07%	-46.84%	-5.79%	299.96%	-99.44%	109.28%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.79%	0.49%	1.63%	0.04%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%	0.01%	1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	142.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	31.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	110.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	28.45	17.78	10.67
Cash Retained (M)	110.39	110.39	110.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-28.45	-17.78	-10.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)	81.94	92.61	99.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	147.34	147.34	147.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.56	0.63	0.68
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.56	0.63	0.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.77	0.84	0.89
WACC / Discount Rate	5.16%	5.16%	5.16%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$162.98	$179.95	$192.02
Upside / Downside	614.84%	689.27%	742.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	142.27	151.51	161.36	171.85	183.02	194.92	200.76
Payout Ratio	22.41%	35.92%	49.44%	62.96%	76.48%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	31.88	54.43	79.78	108.20	139.98	175.42	185.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.16%	5.16%	5.16%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	51.28	51.76	52.25
Year 2 PV (M)	70.80	72.15	73.51
Year 3 PV (M)	90.45	93.05	95.70
Year 4 PV (M)	110.23	114.47	118.83
Year 5 PV (M)	130.14	136.43	142.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,388.22	6,696.77	7,017.13
Equity Value (M)	6,841.13	7,164.63	7,500.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	147.34	147.34	147.34
Fair Value	$46.43	$48.63	$50.90
Upside / Downside	103.64%	113.27%	123.26%

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Chongqing Changjiang River Moulding Material (Group) Co., Ltd. (001296.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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