Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Zigong Conveying Machine Group Co., Ltd. (001288.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$161.85 - $190.69$178.71
Multi-Stage$111.78 - $122.67$117.12
Blended Fair Value$147.91
Current Price$25.70
Upside475.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS23.61%0.00%0.230.090.090.010.000.080.090.050.000.00
YoY Growth--173.11%-3.39%1,053.60%0.00%-100.00%-7.23%72.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.08%0.53%0.79%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.0722.5513.53
Cash Retained (M)127.86127.86127.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.07-22.55-13.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.79105.32114.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.10188.10188.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.560.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate1.98%1.98%1.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$161.85$178.71$190.69
Upside / Downside529.78%595.35%641.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.36192.08204.57217.87232.03247.11254.52
Payout Ratio29.11%41.29%53.46%65.64%77.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.5079.30109.37143.01180.57222.40235.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.98%1.98%1.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.0377.7678.49
Year 2 PV (M)103.20105.17107.15
Year 3 PV (M)131.08134.84138.68
Year 4 PV (M)160.76166.94173.30
Year 5 PV (M)192.34201.63211.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,361.0021,344.4522,365.53
Equity Value (M)21,025.4222,030.7923,074.43
Shares Outstanding (M)188.10188.10188.10
Fair Value$111.78$117.12$122.67
Upside / Downside334.93%355.73%377.32%

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