Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiangtan Yongda Mach Mnfg Co (001239.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.49 - $87.76$82.24
Multi-Stage$28.17 - $30.90$29.51
Blended Fair Value$55.87
Current Price$16.88
Upside231.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS14.15%0.00%0.060.060.070.100.040.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.92%-13.24%-30.02%140.88%31.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.41%0.37%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)105.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.1713.237.94
Cash Retained (M)83.3383.3383.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.17-13.23-7.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.1670.1075.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)239.93239.93239.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.49$82.24$87.76
Upside / Downside341.27%387.21%419.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)105.87112.75120.08127.89136.20145.05149.41
Payout Ratio21.29%35.03%48.77%62.52%76.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.5439.5058.5779.95103.86130.55138.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)37.3937.7538.10
Year 2 PV (M)52.4953.4954.50
Year 3 PV (M)67.8469.7871.77
Year 4 PV (M)83.4386.6489.94
Year 5 PV (M)99.28104.07109.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,417.966,727.957,049.81
Equity Value (M)6,758.397,079.697,413.17
Shares Outstanding (M)239.93239.93239.93
Fair Value$28.17$29.51$30.90
Upside / Downside66.87%74.81%83.04%

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