Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hunan Hualian China Industry Co., Ltd. (001216.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.29 - $177.80$166.62
Multi-Stage$26.55 - $29.06$27.78
Blended Fair Value$97.20
Current Price$15.50
Upside527.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.99%7.32%0.260.210.210.000.000.250.100.120.120.13
YoY Growth--23.81%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-98.97%137.53%-15.80%4.89%-10.50%2.81%
Dividend Yield--1.95%1.35%1.63%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.92%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)225.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)131.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.1128.1916.92
Cash Retained (M)131.08131.08131.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.11-28.19-16.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.97102.88114.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)251.86251.86251.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Fair Value$67.29$166.62$177.80
Upside / Downside334.12%974.97%1,047.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)225.54239.80254.96271.08288.22306.45315.64
Payout Ratio41.88%51.51%61.13%70.75%80.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.46123.51155.86191.80231.66275.80291.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.32%6.32%7.32%
Year 1 PV (M)114.94116.03117.12
Year 2 PV (M)134.98137.55140.15
Year 3 PV (M)154.58159.03163.56
Year 4 PV (M)173.76180.45187.34
Year 5 PV (M)192.51201.83211.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,916.366,202.626,499.84
Equity Value (M)6,687.146,997.517,319.51
Shares Outstanding (M)251.86251.86251.86
Fair Value$26.55$27.78$29.06
Upside / Downside71.30%79.25%87.50%

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