Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. (000878.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.99 - $127.73$47.52
Multi-Stage$15.66 - $17.12$16.38
Blended Fair Value$31.95
Current Price$17.48
Upside82.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.93%6.45%0.670.670.530.780.480.480.440.270.330.31
YoY Growth---1.36%28.00%-32.27%63.48%-0.03%9.44%59.26%-16.32%3.89%-11.80%
Dividend Yield--5.15%5.09%4.09%6.92%3.53%4.89%3.92%2.39%2.33%2.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,293.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)872.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)421.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)258.75161.7297.03
Cash Retained (M)421.37421.37421.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-258.75-161.72-97.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)162.62259.65324.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,003.632,003.632,003.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.130.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.130.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.560.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate4.93%5.93%6.93%
Fair Value$23.99$47.52$127.73
Upside / Downside37.24%171.88%630.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,293.751,370.411,451.611,537.621,628.731,725.241,777.00
Payout Ratio67.43%71.94%76.46%80.97%85.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)872.38985.931,109.871,245.051,392.341,552.721,643.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate4.93%5.93%6.93%
Year 1 PV (M)911.16919.84928.52
Year 2 PV (M)947.91966.07984.40
Year 3 PV (M)982.721,011.081,039.99
Year 4 PV (M)1,015.631,054.911,095.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,046.721,097.561,150.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,479.3727,765.4729,101.07
Equity Value (M)31,383.5132,814.9334,299.65
Shares Outstanding (M)2,003.632,003.632,003.63
Fair Value$15.66$16.38$17.12
Upside / Downside-10.39%-6.31%-2.07%

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