Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited (000756.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$31.05 - $108.22$101.42
Multi-Stage$13.64 - $14.94$14.28
Blended Fair Value$57.85
Current Price$15.52
Upside272.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.43%37.80%0.320.190.140.130.110.090.030.080.010.01
YoY Growth--67.37%34.34%6.74%26.11%20.00%160.00%-56.04%494.93%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.16%1.12%0.59%1.36%1.25%0.72%0.43%0.81%0.12%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)382.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)349.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.4347.7728.66
Cash Retained (M)349.30349.30349.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.43-47.77-28.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)272.87301.53320.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)702.32702.32702.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$31.05$101.42$108.22
Upside / Downside100.07%553.45%597.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)382.16407.01433.46461.64491.64523.60539.31
Payout Ratio8.60%24.88%41.16%57.44%73.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.86101.26178.41265.16362.44471.24498.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.98%6.98%6.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)93.7694.6595.54
Year 2 PV (M)152.98155.89158.83
Year 3 PV (M)210.53216.58222.74
Year 4 PV (M)266.47276.72287.26
Year 5 PV (M)320.82336.32352.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,535.248,947.499,375.53
Equity Value (M)9,579.8010,027.6510,492.30
Shares Outstanding (M)702.32702.32702.32
Fair Value$13.64$14.28$14.94
Upside / Downside-12.11%-8.00%-3.74%

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