Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

GuoCheng Mining CO.,LTD (000688.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.02 - $37.76$14.16
Multi-Stage$4.87 - $5.33$5.09
Blended Fair Value$9.63
Current Price$15.00
Upside-35.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%31.99%0.120.110.030.020.000.000.100.000.000.01
YoY Growth--3.06%304.30%33.01%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-64.26%38.66%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.95%0.16%0.13%0.00%0.00%0.80%0.00%0.04%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)285.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)212.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.1735.7321.44
Cash Retained (M)212.72212.72212.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.17-35.73-21.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)155.55176.99191.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,128.111,128.111,128.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.02$14.16$37.76
Upside / Downside-46.55%-5.59%151.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)285.84304.41324.20345.27367.72391.62403.37
Payout Ratio25.58%38.46%51.35%64.23%77.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.11117.09166.47221.78283.57352.46373.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.17%8.17%8.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)107.23108.25109.26
Year 2 PV (M)139.62142.28144.96
Year 3 PV (M)170.35175.24180.22
Year 4 PV (M)199.47207.14215.03
Year 5 PV (M)227.06238.03249.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,651.704,876.375,109.65
Equity Value (M)5,495.435,747.316,008.55
Shares Outstanding (M)1,128.111,128.111,128.11
Fair Value$4.87$5.09$5.33
Upside / Downside-67.52%-66.04%-64.49%

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