Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanjing Red Sun Co.,Ltd. (000525.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.24 - $0.31$0.28
Multi-Stage$0.58 - $0.64$0.61
Blended Fair Value$0.44
Current Price$6.16
Upside-92.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.39%7.69%0.030.030.080.090.150.060.190.110.190.05
YoY Growth--3.65%-56.73%-14.53%-39.68%164.06%-70.00%66.67%-40.00%281.65%200.00%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.56%1.14%1.75%3.75%0.90%1.80%0.78%1.49%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.9611.236.74
Cash Retained (M)52.4652.4652.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.96-11.23-6.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.5041.2345.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,543.271,543.271,543.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate-9.85%-8.85%-7.85%
Fair Value$0.24$0.28$0.31
Upside / Downside-96.17%-95.51%-94.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.8181.8674.6168.0161.9956.5058.19
Payout Ratio41.59%51.27%60.95%70.63%80.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.3541.9745.4848.0449.7950.8553.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate-9.85%-8.85%-7.85%
Year 1 PV (M)38.4638.8939.31
Year 2 PV (M)38.1939.0439.90
Year 3 PV (M)36.9738.2139.48
Year 4 PV (M)35.1136.6938.33
Year 5 PV (M)32.8634.7336.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)706.16746.21788.05
Equity Value (M)887.75933.77981.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,543.271,543.271,543.27
Fair Value$0.58$0.61$0.64
Upside / Downside-90.66%-90.18%-89.67%

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