Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

TSTE Public Company Limited (TSTE.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.03 - $4.50$3.73
Multi-Stage$5.50 - $6.05$5.77
Blended Fair Value$4.75
Current Price$10.90
Upside-56.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.97%0.96%0.100.210.210.180.160.160.130.060.050.19
YoY Growth---50.00%0.00%14.29%9.38%0.00%23.08%116.67%29.60%-75.56%108.33%
Dividend Yield--0.78%2.07%2.49%2.51%2.35%2.19%1.93%0.83%0.60%1.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)100.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.7817.3610.42
Cash Retained (M)100.58100.58100.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.78-17.36-10.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.8083.2290.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.33373.33373.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate-1.84%-0.84%0.16%
Fair Value$3.03$3.73$4.50
Upside / Downside-72.24%-65.78%-58.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.91137.74136.57135.42134.28133.14137.14
Payout Ratio27.60%40.08%52.56%65.04%77.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.3355.2071.7888.08104.09119.83126.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate-1.84%-0.84%0.16%
Year 1 PV (M)50.6851.2051.72
Year 2 PV (M)60.5261.7663.01
Year 3 PV (M)68.1870.2972.43
Year 4 PV (M)73.9977.0580.20
Year 5 PV (M)78.2182.2786.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,720.851,810.321,903.46
Equity Value (M)2,052.422,152.882,257.33
Shares Outstanding (M)373.33373.33373.33
Fair Value$5.50$5.77$6.05
Upside / Downside-49.56%-47.09%-44.53%

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