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Definitive Analysis

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Türkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi A.S. (TSKB.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$369.07 - $875.11$820.11
Multi-Stage$125.50 - $137.55$131.41
Blended Fair Value$475.76
Current Price$12.48
Upside3,712.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.49%-35.95%0.000.000.000.030.000.000.040.030.020.03
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-99.64%54,788.81%0.00%-99.88%18.39%50.07%-22.95%10.58%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%1.81%0.00%0.01%5.16%2.53%2.19%2.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,324.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,323.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,464.891,540.56924.33
Cash Retained (M)12,323.3912,323.3912,323.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,464.89-1,540.56-924.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,858.5010,782.8311,399.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,800.802,800.802,800.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.523.854.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.523.854.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.854.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$369.07$820.11$875.11
Upside / Downside2,857.32%6,471.40%6,912.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,324.4413,125.5313,978.6914,887.3015,854.9816,885.5517,392.12
Payout Ratio0.01%18.01%36.01%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.062,363.495,033.058,039.6511,415.8615,197.0016,087.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,198.282,219.112,239.95
Year 2 PV (M)4,353.984,436.914,520.62
Year 3 PV (M)6,468.756,654.456,843.66
Year 4 PV (M)8,543.178,871.729,209.65
Year 5 PV (M)10,577.8211,088.7311,619.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)319,365.12334,790.58350,806.40
Equity Value (M)351,507.12368,061.50385,239.48
Shares Outstanding (M)2,800.802,800.802,800.80
Fair Value$125.50$131.41$137.55
Upside / Downside905.63%952.99%1,002.13%

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