Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fastighets AB Trianon (publ) (TRIAN-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.51 - $19.29$16.35
Multi-Stage$35.43 - $39.20$37.28
Blended Fair Value$26.81
Current Price$19.48
Upside37.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-28.05%-5.59%0.040.300.610.360.000.220.180.110.100.08
YoY Growth---86.15%-50.55%72.95%9,671.43%-98.33%22.09%63.03%9.33%20.63%11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.22%1.65%3.49%0.69%0.01%0.95%1.01%0.80%0.78%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)396.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)392.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)79.2849.5529.73
Cash Retained (M)392.30392.30392.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-79.28-49.55-29.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.02342.75362.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)192.42192.42192.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.631.781.88
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.631.781.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.651.801.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-5.09%-4.09%-3.09%
Fair Value$13.51$16.35$19.29
Upside / Downside-30.62%-16.07%-0.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)396.40380.18364.62349.70335.39321.66331.31
Payout Ratio1.03%18.83%36.62%54.41%72.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.1071.58133.53190.28242.17289.50306.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate-5.09%-4.09%-3.09%
Year 1 PV (M)66.5267.2267.92
Year 2 PV (M)115.32117.77120.23
Year 3 PV (M)152.73157.61162.59
Year 4 PV (M)180.64188.38196.36
Year 5 PV (M)200.68211.48222.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,101.896,430.206,772.50
Equity Value (M)6,817.797,172.667,542.34
Shares Outstanding (M)192.42192.42192.42
Fair Value$35.43$37.28$39.20
Upside / Downside81.89%91.36%101.22%

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