Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tivoli A/S (TIV.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$294.76 - $554.47$400.25
Multi-Stage$335.36 - $367.45$351.11
Blended Fair Value$375.68
Current Price$614.00
Upside-38.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.76%8.91%3.772.840.000.000.004.123.423.281.921.94
YoY Growth--32.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%20.41%4.26%70.91%-0.90%20.65%
Dividend Yield--0.59%0.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.63%0.50%0.50%0.32%0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.0413.788.27
Cash Retained (M)79.3079.3079.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.04-13.78-8.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.2665.5371.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.735.735.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.9911.4312.39
LTM Dividend per Share5.395.395.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.9911.4312.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.3816.8217.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Fair Value$294.76$400.25$554.47
Upside / Downside-51.99%-34.81%-9.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.20114.25118.44122.79127.30131.97135.93
Payout Ratio28.04%40.43%52.82%65.22%77.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.9046.1962.5780.0898.79118.77125.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate2.67%3.67%4.67%
Year 1 PV (M)42.3542.7643.17
Year 2 PV (M)52.5853.6154.65
Year 3 PV (M)61.7063.5265.37
Year 4 PV (M)69.7872.5475.38
Year 5 PV (M)76.9180.7384.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,619.221,699.631,783.19
Equity Value (M)1,922.542,012.782,106.47
Shares Outstanding (M)5.735.735.73
Fair Value$335.36$351.11$367.45
Upside / Downside-45.38%-42.82%-40.15%

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