Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Theon International PLC (THEON.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.84 - $13.30$10.95
Multi-Stage$17.79 - $19.55$18.65
Blended Fair Value$14.80
Current Price$30.45
Upside-51.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.569.105.46
Cash Retained (M)34.5634.5634.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.56-9.10-5.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.0025.4629.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.5869.5869.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.370.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.370.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.84$10.95$13.30
Upside / Downside-70.97%-64.05%-56.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.7972.0771.3570.6369.9369.2371.30
Payout Ratio52.53%60.02%67.52%75.01%82.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.2443.2648.1752.9857.6962.3065.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39.9140.3240.73
Year 2 PV (M)41.0241.8642.71
Year 3 PV (M)41.6342.9144.23
Year 4 PV (M)41.8343.5645.35
Year 5 PV (M)41.6843.8546.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,031.531,085.251,141.17
Equity Value (M)1,237.591,297.751,360.30
Shares Outstanding (M)69.5869.5869.58
Fair Value$17.79$18.65$19.55
Upside / Downside-41.59%-38.75%-35.80%

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