Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Serco Group plc (SRP.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.99 - $3.27$2.56
Multi-Stage$3.50 - $3.84$3.67
Blended Fair Value$3.11
Current Price$2.02
Upside54.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-3.19%0.040.030.030.030.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--13.95%11.22%14.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.40%1.95%1.85%1.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.5223.4514.07
Cash Retained (M)86.9086.9086.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.52-23.45-14.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.3863.4572.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,059.411,059.411,059.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Fair Value$1.99$2.56$3.27
Upside / Downside-1.48%26.64%61.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.60189.34191.10192.87194.66196.47202.36
Payout Ratio53.68%60.94%68.21%75.47%82.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.70115.39130.34145.56161.06176.82187.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate-0.07%0.93%1.93%
Year 1 PV (M)106.73107.80108.87
Year 2 PV (M)111.52113.76116.02
Year 3 PV (M)115.19118.69122.25
Year 4 PV (M)117.89122.68127.61
Year 5 PV (M)119.72125.83132.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,136.063,296.143,462.70
Equity Value (M)3,707.103,884.894,069.64
Shares Outstanding (M)1,059.411,059.411,059.41
Fair Value$3.50$3.67$3.84
Upside / Downside73.23%81.54%90.17%

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