Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$173.27 - $340.46$239.22
Multi-Stage$277.13 - $303.94$290.28
Blended Fair Value$264.75
Current Price$235.00
Upside12.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.01%4.35%8.427.007.006.503.006.005.765.755.795.72
YoY Growth--20.24%0.00%7.67%116.69%-49.98%4.20%0.11%-0.65%1.15%4.03%
Dividend Yield--4.18%3.16%3.42%3.71%1.21%4.38%3.58%3.35%3.27%3.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,866.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,612.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,254.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)973.20608.25364.95
Cash Retained (M)1,254.001,254.001,254.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-973.20-608.25-364.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)280.80645.75889.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)455.35455.35455.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.621.421.95
LTM Dividend per Share7.937.937.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.621.421.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.559.359.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Fair Value$173.27$239.22$340.46
Upside / Downside-26.27%1.80%44.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,866.004,980.595,097.875,217.925,340.795,466.565,630.56
Payout Ratio74.23%77.38%80.54%83.69%86.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,612.003,854.154,105.704,366.974,638.264,919.905,208.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate1.35%2.35%3.35%
Year 1 PV (M)3,588.433,623.833,659.24
Year 2 PV (M)3,559.093,629.663,700.93
Year 3 PV (M)3,524.573,629.933,737.36
Year 4 PV (M)3,485.443,625.043,768.79
Year 5 PV (M)3,442.193,615.383,795.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)108,590.95114,054.68119,736.15
Equity Value (M)126,190.67132,178.52138,397.95
Shares Outstanding (M)455.35455.35455.35
Fair Value$277.13$290.28$303.94
Upside / Downside17.93%23.52%29.33%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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