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Definitive Analysis

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Siemens AG (SIE.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$219.62 - $456.76$309.62
Multi-Stage$306.27 - $336.09$320.90
Blended Fair Value$315.26
Current Price$217.65
Upside44.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.92%3.89%4.664.224.043.523.993.843.783.663.553.43
YoY Growth--10.32%4.57%14.66%-11.66%3.73%1.63%3.33%3.08%3.63%7.70%
Dividend Yield--2.47%2.52%3.11%2.31%3.39%3.30%3.86%3.18%3.04%3.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,902.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,093.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,809.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,980.401,237.75742.65
Cash Retained (M)5,809.005,809.005,809.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,980.40-1,237.75-742.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,828.604,571.255,066.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)796.16796.16796.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.815.746.36
LTM Dividend per Share5.145.145.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.815.746.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.9510.8811.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.92%2.92%3.92%
Fair Value$219.62$309.62$456.76
Upside / Downside0.91%42.26%109.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,902.0010,191.3310,489.1110,795.5911,111.0211,435.6811,778.75
Payout Ratio41.34%51.07%60.80%70.53%80.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,093.005,204.516,377.497,614.568,918.4910,292.1110,895.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.92%2.92%3.92%
Year 1 PV (M)4,837.604,885.064,932.53
Year 2 PV (M)5,509.965,618.625,728.33
Year 3 PV (M)6,114.966,296.726,482.05
Year 4 PV (M)6,657.176,922.317,195.28
Year 5 PV (M)7,140.897,498.157,869.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)213,581.31224,266.63235,375.40
Equity Value (M)243,841.89255,487.48267,583.15
Shares Outstanding (M)796.16796.16796.16
Fair Value$306.27$320.90$336.09
Upside / Downside40.72%47.44%54.42%

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