Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ser Educacional S.A. (SEER3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.39 - $28.70$19.98
Multi-Stage$20.32 - $22.32$21.30
Blended Fair Value$20.64
Current Price$11.34
Upside81.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.320.212.520.460.270.180.10
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%53.62%-91.73%445.83%70.98%48.09%89.61%-58.30%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%2.95%1.70%16.65%2.22%1.34%0.94%0.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)109.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.9313.718.23
Cash Retained (M)90.0690.0690.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.93-13.71-8.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.1376.3581.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)126.81126.81126.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate1.72%2.72%3.72%
Fair Value$14.39$19.98$28.70
Upside / Downside26.89%76.17%153.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)109.67112.65115.71118.85122.08125.39129.15
Payout Ratio17.88%32.30%46.73%61.15%75.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.6136.3954.0772.6892.26112.85119.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate1.72%2.72%3.72%
Year 1 PV (M)33.8034.1334.47
Year 2 PV (M)46.6547.5748.50
Year 3 PV (M)58.2559.9961.76
Year 4 PV (M)68.6971.4374.25
Year 5 PV (M)78.0581.9686.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,290.852,405.702,525.11
Equity Value (M)2,576.292,700.782,830.11
Shares Outstanding (M)126.81126.81126.81
Fair Value$20.32$21.30$22.32
Upside / Downside79.15%87.81%96.80%

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