Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Surya Biru Murni Acetylene Tbk (SBMA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.63 - $216.58$175.25
Multi-Stage$317.33 - $349.65$333.17
Blended Fair Value$254.21
Current Price$140.00
Upside81.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%1.101.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---26.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.93%1.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,836.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,719.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,116.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,767.201,729.501,037.70
Cash Retained (M)10,116.3010,116.3010,116.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,767.20-1,729.50-1,037.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,349.108,386.809,078.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)929.59929.59929.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.919.029.77
LTM Dividend per Share4.004.004.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.919.029.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.9113.0213.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$139.63$175.25$216.58
Upside / Downside-0.26%25.18%54.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,836.0113,697.6513,560.6713,425.0613,290.8113,157.9013,552.64
Payout Ratio26.88%39.51%52.13%64.75%77.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,719.715,411.587,069.258,693.2210,284.0111,842.1112,536.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5,036.745,088.145,139.53
Year 2 PV (M)6,123.856,249.466,376.35
Year 3 PV (M)7,009.027,225.787,446.96
Year 4 PV (M)7,717.288,037.128,366.81
Year 5 PV (M)8,270.978,701.659,150.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)260,831.71274,413.82288,555.93
Equity Value (M)294,989.56309,715.97325,035.68
Shares Outstanding (M)929.59929.59929.59
Fair Value$317.33$333.17$349.65
Upside / Downside126.67%137.98%149.75%

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