Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Paramita Bangun Sarana Tbk (PBSA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,105.75 - $15,399.96$14,432.02
Multi-Stage$2,376.38 - $2,598.34$2,485.33
Blended Fair Value$8,458.68
Current Price$985.00
Upside758.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.87%-18.62%13.0080.0023.5013.5016.506.5040.0010.000.0056.89
YoY Growth---83.75%240.43%74.07%-18.18%153.85%-83.75%300.00%0.00%-100.00%-44.23%
Dividend Yield--3.57%26.85%7.48%3.65%6.90%1.73%11.51%1.33%0.00%9.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)232,306.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)165,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)67,306.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46,461.2429,038.2717,422.96
Cash Retained (M)67,306.1867,306.1867,306.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-46,461.24-29,038.27-17,422.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,844.9438,267.9149,883.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,000.003,000.003,000.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.9512.7616.63
LTM Dividend per Share55.0055.0055.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.9512.7616.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend61.9567.7671.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,105.75$14,432.02$15,399.96
Upside / Downside621.40%1,365.18%1,463.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)232,306.18247,406.08263,487.48280,614.16298,854.08318,279.60327,827.99
Payout Ratio71.03%74.82%78.62%82.41%86.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)165,000.00185,113.09207,143.77231,256.32257,628.33286,451.64303,240.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)172,312.88173,946.18175,579.47
Year 2 PV (M)179,487.03182,905.75186,356.73
Year 3 PV (M)186,524.30191,878.74197,334.68
Year 4 PV (M)193,426.52200,865.15208,516.31
Year 5 PV (M)200,195.49209,865.01219,904.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,197,203.516,496,530.756,807,313.96
Equity Value (M)7,129,149.727,455,991.587,795,005.75
Shares Outstanding (M)3,000.003,000.003,000.00
Fair Value$2,376.38$2,485.33$2,598.34
Upside / Downside141.26%152.32%163.79%

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