Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Origin Property Public Company Limited (ORI-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.40 - $1.97$1.68
Multi-Stage$4.14 - $4.58$4.35
Blended Fair Value$3.02
Current Price$1.63
Upside85.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.66%25.03%0.320.730.570.610.290.560.390.050.080.10
YoY Growth---56.03%28.07%-6.51%110.34%-48.59%43.93%666.68%-35.08%-22.97%197.11%
Dividend Yield--15.73%10.35%4.91%5.35%3.43%15.93%5.68%0.41%1.31%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)566.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)515.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.3970.8742.52
Cash Retained (M)515.43515.43515.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.39-70.87-42.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)402.04444.56472.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,454.242,454.242,454.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-6.21%-5.21%-4.21%
Fair Value$1.40$1.68$1.97
Upside / Downside-14.27%3.08%20.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)566.97537.43509.44482.90457.74433.90446.91
Payout Ratio9.09%25.27%41.45%57.64%73.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.54135.82211.18278.32337.90390.51413.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-6.21%-5.21%-4.21%
Year 1 PV (M)126.55127.90129.25
Year 2 PV (M)183.33187.26191.24
Year 3 PV (M)225.13232.40239.84
Year 4 PV (M)254.66265.69277.08
Year 5 PV (M)274.22289.15304.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,087.419,582.3110,098.53
Equity Value (M)10,151.2910,684.7111,240.66
Shares Outstanding (M)2,454.242,454.242,454.24
Fair Value$4.14$4.35$4.58
Upside / Downside153.76%167.09%180.99%

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