Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Nusa Raya Cipta Tbk (NRCA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$594.59 - $923.29$746.63
Multi-Stage$1,334.00 - $1,469.12$1,400.23
Blended Fair Value$1,073.43
Current Price$905.00
Upside18.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.88%0.09%28.8641.7914.9314.9324.8830.1640.2130.1616.4030.87
YoY Growth---30.95%180.00%0.00%-40.00%-17.51%-25.00%33.33%83.86%-46.87%7.99%
Dividend Yield--9.43%12.15%4.85%5.45%7.54%10.77%9.95%7.01%3.96%4.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)153,231.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53,523.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)99,708.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30,646.2919,153.9311,492.36
Cash Retained (M)99,708.4199,708.4199,708.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-30,646.29-19,153.93-11,492.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)69,062.1280,554.4888,216.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,429.012,429.012,429.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share28.4333.1636.32
LTM Dividend per Share22.0322.0322.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share28.4333.1636.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend50.4755.2058.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-1.91%-0.91%0.09%
Fair Value$594.59$746.63$923.29
Upside / Downside-34.30%-17.50%2.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)153,231.45151,843.12150,467.37149,104.09147,753.15146,414.46150,806.89
Payout Ratio34.93%45.94%56.96%67.97%78.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53,523.0469,762.2585,702.79101,348.76116,704.17131,773.01139,496.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-1.91%-0.91%0.09%
Year 1 PV (M)64,892.1965,553.7366,215.26
Year 2 PV (M)74,154.7575,674.3777,209.40
Year 3 PV (M)81,570.7584,090.9486,662.51
Year 4 PV (M)87,372.4390,990.0994,718.94
Year 5 PV (M)91,767.0096,540.85101,511.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,840,549.952,988,319.403,142,175.58
Equity Value (M)3,240,307.073,401,169.363,568,493.03
Shares Outstanding (M)2,429.012,429.012,429.01
Fair Value$1,334.00$1,400.23$1,469.12
Upside / Downside47.40%54.72%62.33%

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