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Definitive Analysis

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Moshi Moshi Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (MOSHI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.56 - $27.42$22.10
Multi-Stage$41.84 - $46.07$43.91
Blended Fair Value$33.01
Current Price$40.25
Upside-17.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.600.092.540.000.000.000.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth--560.00%-96.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%0.16%5.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)604.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)340.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)120.9075.5645.34
Cash Retained (M)340.50340.50340.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-120.90-75.56-45.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)219.60264.94295.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)329.94329.94329.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.800.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.800.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.601.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.56$22.10$27.42
Upside / Downside-56.37%-45.08%-31.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)604.50598.46592.47586.55580.68574.88592.12
Payout Ratio43.67%52.94%62.20%71.47%80.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.00316.81368.54419.20468.81517.39547.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)295.36298.37301.38
Year 2 PV (M)320.32326.89333.52
Year 3 PV (M)339.68350.18360.90
Year 4 PV (M)354.15368.83383.96
Year 5 PV (M)364.38383.35403.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,129.5112,761.1213,418.78
Equity Value (M)13,803.3914,488.7415,201.65
Shares Outstanding (M)329.94329.94329.94
Fair Value$41.84$43.91$46.07
Upside / Downside3.94%9.10%14.47%

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