Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Morgan Advanced Materials plc (MGAM.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.54 - $5.65$4.50
Multi-Stage$6.72 - $7.37$7.04
Blended Fair Value$5.77
Current Price$2.20
Upside162.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.97%1.34%0.120.120.110.070.020.110.110.110.110.11
YoY Growth--0.88%8.23%65.45%235.09%-81.79%-0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.97%
Dividend Yield--4.44%4.27%3.51%1.86%0.64%3.45%4.18%3.25%3.85%4.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)29.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.5612.237.34
Cash Retained (M)29.1029.1029.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.56-12.23-7.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.5416.8821.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)285.89285.89285.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate7.02%7.02%7.02%
Growth Rate-0.66%0.34%1.34%
Fair Value$3.54$4.50$5.65
Upside / Downside61.00%104.51%156.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.8098.1398.4798.8099.1499.47102.46
Payout Ratio70.25%74.20%78.15%82.10%86.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.7072.8176.9581.1185.3189.5394.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.02%7.02%7.02%
Growth Rate-0.66%0.34%1.34%
Year 1 PV (M)67.3668.0468.72
Year 2 PV (M)65.8667.1968.54
Year 3 PV (M)64.2366.1868.18
Year 4 PV (M)62.4965.0467.67
Year 5 PV (M)60.6763.7967.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,599.431,681.571,767.05
Equity Value (M)1,920.032,011.812,107.18
Shares Outstanding (M)285.89285.89285.89
Fair Value$6.72$7.04$7.37
Upside / Downside205.27%219.86%235.02%

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