Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mader Group Limited (MAD.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.76 - $91.16$85.43
Multi-Stage$13.56 - $14.84$14.19
Blended Fair Value$49.81
Current Price$6.73
Upside640.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS30.42%0.00%0.080.070.040.030.030.020.040.010.000.00
YoY Growth--12.15%63.64%25.71%16.67%40.19%-53.28%205.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.10%0.73%1.24%3.32%2.58%3.78%1.24%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4712.177.30
Cash Retained (M)70.0970.0970.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.47-12.17-7.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.6257.9262.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)212.43212.43212.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.76$85.43$91.16
Upside / Downside505.70%1,169.33%1,254.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.37103.70110.44117.61125.26133.40137.40
Payout Ratio28.01%40.41%52.81%65.21%77.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.2841.9058.3276.6997.20120.06127.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.0039.3639.73
Year 2 PV (M)50.5051.4752.44
Year 3 PV (M)61.8163.5865.39
Year 4 PV (M)72.9075.7078.59
Year 5 PV (M)83.7987.8492.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,571.882,696.102,825.08
Equity Value (M)2,879.883,014.053,153.27
Shares Outstanding (M)212.43212.43212.43
Fair Value$13.56$14.19$14.84
Upside / Downside101.44%110.83%120.56%

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