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Definitive Analysis

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Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited (KPG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.20 - $57.97$54.32
Multi-Stage$12.92 - $14.17$13.53
Blended Fair Value$33.93
Current Price$10.77
Upside215.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS51.38%0.00%0.420.030.090.070.040.050.150.030.080.03
YoY Growth--1,109.84%-59.38%26.87%57.20%-18.90%-64.22%391.19%-61.53%127.10%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.93%0.42%1.94%1.75%1.27%6.05%17.93%2.46%5.55%2.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.631.640.98
Cash Retained (M)11.5611.5611.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.63-1.64-0.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.939.9110.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.0545.0545.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate5.32%5.32%5.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.20$54.32$57.97
Upside / Downside356.82%404.38%438.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.1313.9814.8915.8616.8917.9918.53
Payout Ratio12.00%27.60%43.20%58.80%74.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.583.866.439.3312.5716.1917.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.32%5.32%5.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3.633.663.70
Year 2 PV (M)5.695.805.91
Year 3 PV (M)7.767.988.21
Year 4 PV (M)9.8410.2110.60
Year 5 PV (M)11.9212.4913.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)543.27569.51596.75
Equity Value (M)582.10609.66638.26
Shares Outstanding (M)45.0545.0545.05
Fair Value$12.92$13.53$14.17
Upside / Downside19.97%25.65%31.55%

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