Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

JD Sports Fashion plc (JD.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.28 - $31.96$29.96
Multi-Stage$4.50 - $4.93$4.71
Blended Fair Value$17.33
Current Price$0.89
Upside1,844.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.51%13.73%0.010.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---4.19%102.02%66.44%0.00%-100.00%5.03%4.61%4.83%4.92%4.22%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.83%0.29%0.15%0.00%0.20%0.33%0.40%0.40%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)829.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)697.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)165.98103.7462.24
Cash Retained (M)697.80697.80697.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-165.98-103.74-62.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)531.82594.06635.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,163.455,163.455,163.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.28$29.96$31.96
Upside / Downside1,278.29%3,261.23%3,486.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)829.90883.84941.291,002.481,067.641,137.031,171.15
Payout Ratio15.92%30.73%45.55%60.37%75.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.10271.64428.76605.17802.691,023.331,083.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)252.42254.81257.20
Year 2 PV (M)370.23377.28384.40
Year 3 PV (M)485.58499.52513.72
Year 4 PV (M)598.49621.51645.18
Year 5 PV (M)709.02743.26778.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,823.9321,829.7322,874.03
Equity Value (M)23,239.6724,326.1225,453.36
Shares Outstanding (M)5,163.455,163.455,163.45
Fair Value$4.50$4.71$4.93
Upside / Downside405.03%428.64%453.13%

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