Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Goel Food Products Limited (GOEL.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.98 - $69.54$57.08
Multi-Stage$90.25 - $99.50$94.78
Blended Fair Value$75.93
Current Price$14.93
Upside408.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.1212.577.54
Cash Retained (M)98.6998.6998.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.12-12.57-7.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)78.5886.1291.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.8518.8518.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.174.574.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.174.574.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.274.674.93
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$45.98$57.08$69.54
Upside / Downside207.98%282.32%365.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.5899.5798.5797.5996.6195.6598.52
Payout Ratio1.87%19.50%37.12%54.75%72.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.8919.4236.5953.4369.9286.0891.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)17.9518.1318.31
Year 2 PV (M)31.2631.9132.55
Year 3 PV (M)42.1943.5044.83
Year 4 PV (M)51.0453.1555.33
Year 5 PV (M)58.0861.1064.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,500.911,579.061,660.44
Equity Value (M)1,701.421,786.851,875.72
Shares Outstanding (M)18.8518.8518.85
Fair Value$90.25$94.78$99.50
Upside / Downside504.49%534.84%566.41%

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