Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Gulf Investment Fund plc (GIF.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.97 - $4.00$3.50
Multi-Stage$5.12 - $5.64$5.38
Blended Fair Value$4.44
Current Price$231.00
Upside-98.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-4.05%0.080.070.000.040.070.000.000.100.120.00
YoY Growth--14.68%0.00%-100.00%-44.02%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-13.18%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.04%0.03%0.00%0.02%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.11%0.11%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.183.241.94
Cash Retained (M)19.7119.7119.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.18-3.24-1.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.5316.4717.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.8440.8440.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.400.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.550.59
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-6.05%-5.05%-4.05%
Fair Value$2.97$3.50$4.00
Upside / Downside-98.71%-98.49%-98.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.8924.5923.3422.1621.0419.9820.58
Payout Ratio23.89%37.11%50.34%63.56%76.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.199.1311.7514.0916.1617.9819.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-6.05%-5.05%-4.05%
Year 1 PV (M)8.218.308.38
Year 2 PV (M)9.519.719.92
Year 3 PV (M)10.2510.5810.92
Year 4 PV (M)10.5811.0411.51
Year 5 PV (M)10.5911.1711.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)160.16168.87177.95
Equity Value (M)209.30219.66230.45
Shares Outstanding (M)40.8440.8440.84
Fair Value$5.12$5.38$5.64
Upside / Downside-97.78%-97.67%-97.56%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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