Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Exxaro Resources Limited (EXX.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,259.13 - $2,547.82$1,757.28
Multi-Stage$986.88 - $1,074.85$1,030.08
Blended Fair Value$1,393.68
Current Price$146.92
Upside848.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.24%10.83%23.7822.7936.9552.4816.6124.061.029.222.594.07
YoY Growth--4.34%-38.31%-29.61%215.95%-30.97%2,253.04%-88.91%256.32%-36.48%-52.12%
Dividend Yield--15.06%11.15%17.00%34.33%11.96%18.35%0.74%5.69%2.89%9.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)17,250.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,862.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,388.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,450.002,156.251,293.75
Cash Retained (M)7,388.007,388.007,388.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,450.00-2,156.25-1,293.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,938.005,231.756,094.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)241.52241.52241.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.3121.6625.23
LTM Dividend per Share40.8340.8340.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.3121.6625.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.1462.5066.07
WACC / Discount Rate10.29%10.29%10.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,259.13$1,757.28$2,547.82
Upside / Downside757.02%1,096.08%1,634.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)17,250.0018,371.2519,565.3820,837.1322,191.5423,633.9924,343.01
Payout Ratio57.17%63.74%70.30%76.87%83.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,862.0011,709.2513,754.9716,017.1718,515.3421,270.6022,517.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.29%10.29%10.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,517.3310,617.0210,716.71
Year 2 PV (M)11,097.1811,308.5511,521.91
Year 3 PV (M)11,606.8611,940.0612,279.56
Year 4 PV (M)12,051.3912,514.8512,991.56
Year 5 PV (M)12,435.4513,036.0913,659.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)180,641.14189,366.17198,425.13
Equity Value (M)238,349.35248,782.73259,594.58
Shares Outstanding (M)241.52241.52241.52
Fair Value$986.88$1,030.08$1,074.85
Upside / Downside571.71%601.12%631.59%

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