Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ependion AB (EPEN.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$139.66 - $602.15$242.22
Multi-Stage$86.10 - $94.13$90.04
Blended Fair Value$166.13
Current Price$120.40
Upside37.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.14%0.00%0.950.480.470.000.000.470.000.000.790.00
YoY Growth--100.71%0.24%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.43%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)101.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6117.2610.35
Cash Retained (M)101.75101.75101.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.61-17.26-10.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)74.1484.4991.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.3230.3230.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.452.793.01
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.452.793.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.643.984.21
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$139.66$242.22$602.15
Upside / Downside16.00%101.18%400.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.06147.04156.59166.77177.61189.16194.83
Payout Ratio26.30%39.04%51.78%64.52%77.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.3157.4081.09107.60137.22170.24180.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.5353.0353.53
Year 2 PV (M)67.9069.1970.50
Year 3 PV (M)82.4684.8287.24
Year 4 PV (M)96.2399.93103.73
Year 5 PV (M)109.25114.52120.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,201.962,308.322,418.75
Equity Value (M)2,610.322,729.822,853.74
Shares Outstanding (M)30.3230.3230.32
Fair Value$86.10$90.04$94.13
Upside / Downside-28.49%-25.21%-21.82%

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