Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Exchange Income Corporation (EIF.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$140.85 - $534.48$410.32
Multi-Stage$69.47 - $75.83$72.59
Blended Fair Value$241.46
Current Price$72.62
Upside232.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.59%12.90%2.352.141.821.591.491.361.281.211.050.84
YoY Growth--9.86%17.56%14.15%6.72%9.99%6.25%5.18%15.54%24.55%20.85%
Dividend Yield--4.72%4.33%3.39%3.72%3.71%7.64%3.81%4.05%2.69%3.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)134.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.8318.0210.81
Cash Retained (M)9.919.919.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.83-18.02-10.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-18.92-8.11-0.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.6353.6353.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.35-0.15-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share2.502.502.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.35-0.15-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.152.352.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$140.85$410.32$534.48
Upside / Downside93.96%465.03%635.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.13153.50163.47174.10185.42197.47203.39
Payout Ratio93.13%92.50%91.88%91.25%90.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)134.22141.99150.19158.87168.03177.72188.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)131.32132.56133.80
Year 2 PV (M)128.47130.91133.38
Year 3 PV (M)125.67129.28132.96
Year 4 PV (M)122.94127.66132.53
Year 5 PV (M)120.25126.06132.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,097.083,246.673,401.99
Equity Value (M)3,725.733,893.164,066.76
Shares Outstanding (M)53.6353.6353.63
Fair Value$69.47$72.59$75.83
Upside / Downside-4.33%-0.04%4.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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