Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Danya Cebus Ltd. (DNYA.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.93 - $320.68$185.95
Multi-Stage$88.28 - $96.20$92.17
Blended Fair Value$139.06
Current Price$123.50
Upside12.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720142013
DPS62.37%0.00%4.984.832.802.806.910.440.000.001.871.56
YoY Growth--3.23%72.22%0.00%-59.46%1,465.98%0.00%0.00%-100.00%20.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.84%5.11%3.92%3.01%11.88%0.75%0.00%0.00%9.15%7.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)120.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.6121.0112.60
Cash Retained (M)48.0548.0548.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.61-21.01-12.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.4427.0435.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.1132.1132.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.841.10
LTM Dividend per Share3.743.743.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.841.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.194.584.84
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$121.93$185.95$320.68
Upside / Downside-1.27%50.57%159.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.05178.97190.61203.00216.19230.24237.15
Payout Ratio71.41%75.13%78.84%82.56%86.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)120.00134.46150.28167.60186.53207.22219.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)122.06123.21124.37
Year 2 PV (M)123.85126.21128.59
Year 3 PV (M)125.38128.98132.65
Year 4 PV (M)126.68131.55136.56
Year 5 PV (M)127.75133.92140.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,208.702,315.382,426.15
Equity Value (M)2,834.422,959.253,088.64
Shares Outstanding (M)32.1132.1132.11
Fair Value$88.28$92.17$96.20
Upside / Downside-28.52%-25.37%-22.11%

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