Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dunelm Group plc (DNLM.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.57 - $294.44$117.92
Multi-Stage$60.28 - $66.10$63.13
Blended Fair Value$90.53
Current Price$11.85
Upside663.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-3.44%-6.96%0.440.780.801.390.120.520.270.260.250.53
YoY Growth---43.53%-3.49%-42.11%1,060.91%-77.08%94.14%2.25%3.49%-52.40%-40.82%
Dividend Yield--3.69%7.32%7.17%16.90%0.84%4.38%2.92%5.20%4.22%6.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)307.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)246.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.5038.4423.06
Cash Retained (M)60.9060.9060.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.50-38.44-23.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.6022.4637.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)203.30203.30203.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.110.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.110.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.211.321.40
WACC / Discount Rate5.40%5.40%5.40%
Growth Rate3.23%4.23%5.23%
Fair Value$57.57$117.92$294.44
Upside / Downside385.80%895.13%2,384.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)307.50320.50334.05348.17362.89378.24389.58
Payout Ratio80.20%82.16%84.12%86.08%88.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)246.60263.31280.99299.70319.49340.41360.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.40%5.40%5.40%
Growth Rate3.23%4.23%5.23%
Year 1 PV (M)247.43249.83252.22
Year 2 PV (M)248.12252.95257.83
Year 3 PV (M)248.68255.97263.41
Year 4 PV (M)249.11258.90268.98
Year 5 PV (M)249.41261.73274.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,012.2411,556.0712,121.18
Equity Value (M)12,254.9912,835.4513,438.15
Shares Outstanding (M)203.30203.30203.30
Fair Value$60.28$63.13$66.10
Upside / Downside408.69%432.78%457.80%

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