Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Codan Limited (CDA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$171.45 - $201.99$189.30
Multi-Stage$137.30 - $150.68$143.87
Blended Fair Value$166.58
Current Price$20.11
Upside728.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.50%23.68%0.240.200.240.290.210.150.150.110.100.04
YoY Growth--22.67%-16.60%-18.52%37.50%43.75%0.47%37.16%10.55%150.27%33.35%
Dividend Yield--1.22%1.69%2.97%4.21%1.18%2.09%4.16%3.59%4.16%3.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)184.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.9823.1113.87
Cash Retained (M)126.86126.86126.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.98-23.11-13.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.88103.75112.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)182.03182.03182.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.570.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.570.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$171.45$189.30$201.99
Upside / Downside752.55%841.31%904.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)184.88196.90209.70223.33237.84253.30260.90
Payout Ratio31.38%43.11%54.83%66.55%78.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.0284.88114.98148.63186.17227.97241.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)84.9485.7586.55
Year 2 PV (M)115.15117.35119.56
Year 3 PV (M)148.98153.25157.61
Year 4 PV (M)186.75193.93201.32
Year 5 PV (M)228.86239.91251.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,226.8725,397.0326,611.98
Equity Value (M)24,991.5426,187.2227,428.41
Shares Outstanding (M)182.03182.03182.03
Fair Value$137.30$143.87$150.68
Upside / Downside582.73%615.39%649.30%

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