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ANZ Group Holdings Limited (AN3PJ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$222.39 - $832.53$662.66
Multi-Stage$107.24 - $117.15$112.11
Blended Fair Value$387.38
Current Price$102.70
Upside277.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.83%1.97%1.401.611.341.160.870.881.371.401.351.40
YoY Growth---12.93%19.91%15.75%33.52%-0.94%-36.01%-2.02%4.04%-3.90%21.29%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.57%1.34%1.17%0.86%0.87%1.36%1.39%1.33%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,633.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,099.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,534.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,726.601,704.131,022.48
Cash Retained (M)3,534.003,534.003,534.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,726.60-1,704.13-1,022.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)807.401,829.882,511.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.673,256.673,256.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.560.77
LTM Dividend per Share3.103.103.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.560.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.353.663.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$222.39$662.66$832.53
Upside / Downside116.55%545.24%710.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,633.0014,519.1515,462.8916,467.9817,538.4018,678.3919,238.74
Payout Ratio74.08%77.26%80.45%83.63%86.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,099.0011,217.7912,439.3613,772.3415,226.0516,810.5517,795.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,376.8810,475.2410,573.60
Year 2 PV (M)10,644.2910,847.0311,051.69
Year 3 PV (M)10,901.4811,214.4211,533.30
Year 4 PV (M)11,148.7011,577.4512,018.45
Year 5 PV (M)11,386.1911,936.1412,507.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)294,802.28309,041.34323,825.36
Equity Value (M)349,259.81365,091.62381,509.54
Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.673,256.673,256.67
Fair Value$107.24$112.11$117.15
Upside / Downside4.42%9.16%14.07%

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