Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Poulaillon S.A. (ALPOU.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.77 - $357.71$146.36
Multi-Stage$38.23 - $41.87$40.02
Blended Fair Value$93.19
Current Price$5.15
Upside1,709.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.52%0.00%0.060.000.000.000.000.040.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.65%0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.841.150.69
Cash Retained (M)8.898.898.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.84-1.15-0.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.057.748.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.115.115.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.511.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.511.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.441.571.66
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Fair Value$70.77$146.36$357.71
Upside / Downside1,274.11%2,742.03%6,845.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.209.7910.4211.1011.8212.5812.96
Payout Ratio3.34%20.67%38.00%55.34%72.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.312.023.966.148.5911.3211.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1.861.881.90
Year 2 PV (M)3.363.423.49
Year 3 PV (M)4.794.935.07
Year 4 PV (M)6.176.406.65
Year 5 PV (M)7.487.858.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)171.76180.06188.68
Equity Value (M)195.42204.54214.00
Shares Outstanding (M)5.115.115.11
Fair Value$38.23$40.02$41.87
Upside / Downside642.42%677.05%712.99%

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