Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alpha Bank S.A. (ALPHA.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.39 - $73.74$64.65
Multi-Stage$9.21 - $10.08$9.64
Blended Fair Value$37.14
Current Price$2.99
Upside1,142.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%70.03%0.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12,100.00%-67.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.42%0.03%0.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)848.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)131.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)717.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.73106.0863.65
Cash Retained (M)717.21717.21717.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.73-106.08-63.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)547.48611.13653.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,288.832,288.832,288.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.320.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.39$64.65$73.74
Upside / Downside582.06%2,062.12%2,366.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)848.64903.80962.551,025.111,091.751,162.711,197.59
Payout Ratio15.49%30.39%45.29%60.19%75.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)131.43274.66435.96617.06819.871,046.441,107.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)254.20256.61259.02
Year 2 PV (M)373.43380.54387.72
Year 3 PV (M)489.18503.22517.53
Year 4 PV (M)601.54624.67648.47
Year 5 PV (M)710.57744.90780.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,644.9219,545.4820,480.50
Equity Value (M)21,073.8422,055.4123,073.76
Shares Outstanding (M)2,288.832,288.832,288.83
Fair Value$9.21$9.64$10.08
Upside / Downside207.93%222.28%237.16%

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