Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Moulinvest S.A. (ALMOU.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.27 - $17.71$14.23
Multi-Stage$25.53 - $28.10$26.79
Blended Fair Value$20.51
Current Price$15.00
Upside36.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.331.000.650.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---67.03%53.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.33%3.83%1.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.700.440.26
Cash Retained (M)1.921.921.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.70-0.44-0.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.221.481.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.033.033.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.490.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.490.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.71%-0.71%0.29%
Fair Value$11.27$14.23$17.71
Upside / Downside-24.85%-5.16%18.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3.483.463.433.413.393.363.46
Payout Ratio45.03%54.03%63.02%72.01%81.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.571.872.162.462.743.033.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.71%-0.71%0.29%
Year 1 PV (M)1.741.761.78
Year 2 PV (M)1.881.911.95
Year 3 PV (M)1.982.042.11
Year 4 PV (M)2.062.152.23
Year 5 PV (M)2.122.232.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)67.4870.9874.63
Equity Value (M)77.2681.0785.04
Shares Outstanding (M)3.033.033.03
Fair Value$25.53$26.79$28.10
Upside / Downside70.21%78.61%87.36%

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