Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dr. Agarwal's Health Care Limited (AGARWALEYE.NS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.68 - $35.16$29.83
Multi-Stage$36.61 - $40.29$38.42
Blended Fair Value$34.12
Current Price$507.35
Upside-93.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.020.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--2.20%80.61%6,014.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,146.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,146.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)229.30143.3185.99
Cash Retained (M)1,146.451,146.451,146.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-229.30-143.31-85.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)917.151,003.131,060.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)312.87312.87312.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.933.213.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.933.213.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.933.213.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$24.68$29.83$35.16
Upside / Downside-95.14%-94.12%-93.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,146.501,135.041,123.681,112.451,101.321,090.311,123.02
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.06204.35404.56600.74792.96981.281,038.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)184.50186.38188.26
Year 2 PV (M)329.77336.54343.37
Year 3 PV (M)442.12455.79469.75
Year 4 PV (M)526.89548.73571.24
Year 5 PV (M)588.68619.33651.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,383.699,872.3210,381.09
Equity Value (M)11,455.6512,019.0912,604.96
Shares Outstanding (M)312.87312.87312.87
Fair Value$36.61$38.42$40.29
Upside / Downside-92.78%-92.43%-92.06%

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