Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Corporación Actinver, S. A. B. de C. V. (ACTINVRB.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Sector:

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.58 - $159.90$100.61
Multi-Stage$51.47 - $56.28$53.83
Blended Fair Value$77.22
Current Price$19.05
Upside305.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.82%0.00%0.540.350.370.200.000.310.130.110.150.00
YoY Growth--54.23%-6.50%85.19%0.00%-100.00%142.65%19.30%-29.63%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.92%2.32%2.96%1.68%0.00%3.18%0.99%0.77%1.18%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,763.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)293.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,469.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)352.61220.38132.23
Cash Retained (M)1,469.691,469.691,469.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-352.61-220.38-132.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,117.081,249.311,337.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)534.31534.31534.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.092.342.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.092.342.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.642.893.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Fair Value$68.58$100.61$159.90
Upside / Downside260.02%428.12%739.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,763.041,869.781,982.992,103.052,230.382,365.412,436.38
Payout Ratio16.64%31.31%45.98%60.66%75.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)293.35585.45911.841,275.621,680.092,128.872,253.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Year 1 PV (M)531.57536.63541.69
Year 2 PV (M)751.72766.10780.62
Year 3 PV (M)954.83982.361,010.41
Year 4 PV (M)1,141.851,185.951,231.32
Year 5 PV (M)1,313.691,377.421,443.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,805.6523,911.9325,060.74
Equity Value (M)27,499.3128,760.3930,068.36
Shares Outstanding (M)534.31534.31534.31
Fair Value$51.47$53.83$56.28
Upside / Downside170.17%182.56%195.41%

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