Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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National Petroleum Co., Ltd. (9937.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.22 - $40.60$32.16
Multi-Stage$54.13 - $59.43$56.73
Blended Fair Value$44.45
Current Price$61.80
Upside-28.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.98%5.76%2.102.102.102.312.002.002.002.001.401.20
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-8.70%15.00%0.00%-0.02%0.02%42.86%16.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.42%3.18%3.41%4.68%3.97%4.80%4.84%4.93%3.52%3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)734.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)648.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)146.9791.8555.11
Cash Retained (M)85.8585.8585.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-146.97-91.85-55.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)-61.12-6.0130.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)308.35308.35308.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.020.10
LTM Dividend per Share2.102.102.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.20-0.020.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.912.092.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Fair Value$25.22$32.16$40.60
Upside / Downside-59.19%-47.96%-34.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)734.84734.69734.55734.41734.26734.12756.14
Payout Ratio88.32%88.65%88.99%89.33%89.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)648.99651.34653.68656.02658.37660.71699.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-1.02%-0.02%0.98%
Year 1 PV (M)605.67611.79617.91
Year 2 PV (M)565.24576.72588.32
Year 3 PV (M)527.50543.65560.13
Year 4 PV (M)492.27512.47533.28
Year 5 PV (M)459.39483.07507.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,042.1914,766.0115,519.37
Equity Value (M)16,692.2717,493.7118,326.73
Shares Outstanding (M)308.35308.35308.35
Fair Value$54.13$56.73$59.43
Upside / Downside-12.40%-8.20%-3.83%

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