Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Tam Development Co. (9570.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.14 - $97.19$83.72
Multi-Stage$93.24 - $102.36$97.71
Blended Fair Value$90.71
Current Price$137.80
Upside-34.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%1.230.850.490.280.330.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--44.73%73.58%77.59%-16.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.41%0.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.934.962.98
Cash Retained (M)36.6536.6536.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.93-4.96-2.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.7131.6933.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.293.293.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.729.6210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.920.920.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.729.6210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.6310.5411.14
WACC / Discount Rate11.46%11.46%11.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$70.14$83.72$97.19
Upside / Downside-49.10%-39.25%-29.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.6739.2838.8838.5038.1137.7338.86
Payout Ratio7.62%24.10%40.57%57.05%73.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.029.4715.7821.9628.0233.9635.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.46%11.46%11.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)8.418.498.58
Year 2 PV (M)12.4412.7012.96
Year 3 PV (M)15.3815.8616.35
Year 4 PV (M)17.4318.1518.90
Year 5 PV (M)18.7619.7420.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)234.75246.98259.70
Equity Value (M)307.18321.92337.24
Shares Outstanding (M)3.293.293.29
Fair Value$93.24$97.71$102.36
Upside / Downside-32.34%-29.09%-25.72%

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