Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Almuneef Company for Trade, Industry, Agriculture and Contracting (9569.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.53 - $47.64$38.42
Multi-Stage$71.06 - $78.34$74.63
Blended Fair Value$56.52
Current Price$6.44
Upside777.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.620.000.001.590.420.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%274.61%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.85%0.00%0.00%24.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.894.932.96
Cash Retained (M)31.8631.8631.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.89-4.93-2.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.9726.9328.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.3512.3512.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.942.182.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.942.182.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.562.802.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$30.53$38.42$47.64
Upside / Downside374.12%496.58%639.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.4639.0738.6838.2937.9137.5338.66
Payout Ratio19.26%33.41%47.55%61.70%75.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.6013.0518.3923.6328.7533.7835.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12.1612.2912.41
Year 2 PV (M)15.9816.3116.64
Year 3 PV (M)19.1319.7220.33
Year 4 PV (M)21.7022.6023.53
Year 5 PV (M)23.7625.0026.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)784.84825.71868.27
Equity Value (M)877.58921.63967.46
Shares Outstanding (M)12.3512.3512.35
Fair Value$71.06$74.63$78.34
Upside / Downside1,003.40%1,058.79%1,116.41%

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