Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Iino Kaiun Kaisha, Ltd. (9119.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,786.15 - $6,183.37$4,018.94
Multi-Stage$1,983.98 - $2,168.31$2,074.47
Blended Fair Value$3,046.70
Current Price$1,012.00
Upside201.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS30.12%18.25%55.9262.9151.9126.9612.9614.999.9910.4710.4910.47
YoY Growth---11.12%21.19%92.57%108.02%-13.56%50.05%-4.60%-0.18%0.18%0.09%
Dividend Yield--5.53%4.76%6.13%3.94%2.96%4.41%2.71%2.08%2.18%2.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,890.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,640.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)13,250.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,978.001,861.251,116.75
Cash Retained (M)13,250.0013,250.0013,250.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,978.00-1,861.25-1,116.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,272.0011,388.7512,133.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.80105.80105.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share97.09107.64114.68
LTM Dividend per Share15.5015.5015.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share97.09107.64114.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend112.59123.14130.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,786.15$4,018.94$6,183.37
Upside / Downside175.31%297.13%511.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,890.0015,857.8516,888.6117,986.3719,155.4820,400.5921,012.61
Payout Ratio11.01%26.81%42.61%58.41%74.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,640.004,251.697,195.9810,505.0514,213.9118,360.5319,436.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,837.143,873.513,909.89
Year 2 PV (M)5,861.145,972.786,085.47
Year 3 PV (M)7,722.127,943.808,169.67
Year 4 PV (M)9,429.709,792.3410,165.34
Year 5 PV (M)10,992.9911,523.9612,075.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)172,068.25180,379.21189,008.25
Equity Value (M)209,911.35219,485.60229,413.87
Shares Outstanding (M)105.80105.80105.80
Fair Value$1,983.98$2,074.47$2,168.31
Upside / Downside96.05%104.99%114.26%

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