Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Japan Hotel REIT Investment Corporation (8985.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$173,617.06 - $425,222.95$258,878.45
Multi-Stage$163,688.54 - $179,390.95$171,393.41
Blended Fair Value$215,135.93
Current Price$76,100.00
Upside182.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.18%10.65%2,871.52625.87335.94376.693,382.823,205.933,034.582,642.951,921.751,235.82
YoY Growth--358.81%86.30%-10.82%-88.86%5.52%5.65%14.82%37.53%55.50%18.40%
Dividend Yield--4.07%0.90%0.43%0.67%6.38%3.95%3.87%3.50%2.44%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39,274.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,987.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)32,286.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,854.834,909.272,945.56
Cash Retained (M)32,286.2932,286.2932,286.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,854.83-4,909.27-2,945.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)24,431.4627,377.0229,340.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.874.874.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share5,020.785,626.116,029.66
LTM Dividend per Share1,436.041,436.041,436.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share5,020.785,626.116,029.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend6,456.827,062.157,465.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Fair Value$173,617.06$258,878.45$425,222.95
Upside / Downside128.14%240.18%458.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39,274.1541,103.7543,018.5945,022.6247,120.0249,315.1350,794.58
Payout Ratio17.79%32.23%46.68%61.12%75.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,987.8613,249.3920,079.1427,516.4835,603.1844,383.6146,984.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate3.66%4.66%5.66%
Year 1 PV (M)12,205.7012,323.4512,441.20
Year 2 PV (M)17,040.3817,370.7417,704.28
Year 3 PV (M)21,512.6522,141.2722,782.03
Year 4 PV (M)25,642.2926,646.1927,679.29
Year 5 PV (M)29,448.1330,896.2432,400.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)690,670.41724,634.10759,920.98
Equity Value (M)796,519.55834,012.00872,928.54
Shares Outstanding (M)4.874.874.87
Fair Value$163,688.54$171,393.41$179,390.95
Upside / Downside115.10%125.22%135.73%

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